Emerging Trends in Real Estate

Will home prices go up or down? Will mortgage interest rates rise or fall? Will there be a recession? Will there be enough homes to buy? While the housing market adjusts to market realities, the questions remain the same.

Macro and micro economics drive homebuying, such as inflation, borrowing costs, supply and demand, housing availability and local jobs, which is why housing markets are highly individual. Nationally aggregated statistics on housing sales such as home prices and mortgage interest rates only indicate trends, and even those may or may not apply to your local market conditions.  So, what do the trends indicate?

Inflation and the Federal Reserve

Inflation appears to be ticking upward again, prompting the Federal Reserve to announce that borrowing rates to banks will continue to rise. Banks respond by raising their borrowing rates to consumers and businesses, resulting in higher mortgage interest rates as well as rates for credit cards and other loans. To reach the Fed’s target rate of two percent inflation, several things need to happen, for consumers to spend less, housing prices to decline and unemployment to increase. Rates are currently the highest they’ve been in over 20 years.

Borrowing rates vary according to two things: Federal Reserve overnight borrowing rates to banks based on local market conditions and the risk of foreclosures in a given area. If inflation continues to rise, the Fed has suggested it may hike rates again in September.

Mortgage interest rates

Over 40% of U.S. mortgages originated in 2020 and 2021, when mortgage rates were at record lows, which explains why homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes and take out new loans at twice the interest rate – over 7%.

To illustrate the difference, a home costing $450,000 with 20% down and at 3% in 2021 cost about $1,518 per month in principal and interest alone.  In 2023, the same home with 20% down and at 6.8% would cost you $2,347 per month – an increase of $829 in just two years.  If you carry the loan to its term – 30 years – you’ll pay a total of $546K at 3% including principal and interest, and $844K at 6.8%.

What many consumers may not realize is that published rates on mortgage rates are idealized as if the borrower has the best credit scores, a 20% down payment, and a solid work history. In reality, mortgage interest rates depend on many factors including debt-to-income ratio, the home you’re buying, your local market conditions, the terms of your loan, your lender’s underwriting practices, and more.

Supply and demand

The continuing shortage of homes for sale has multiple causes, but the most obvious reason is that the country is not building enough houses for the number of households that are forming. Between 2012 and 2022, 15.6 million households were formed, but only 8.5 million single-family homes and 3.4 million multi-family homes were completed. The gap between single-family housing starts and household formations grew from 5.5 million in 2021 to 6.5 million in 2022.

Housing is still suffering a hangover from the 2008 housing crisis, as it took years for home prices to recover from devastating 30% losses. In the meanwhile, lenders tightened lending practices to comply with stricter consumer qualification rules from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored entities tasked with buying mortgage packages from banks and putting them into securities. This replenishes money to the banks so they can lend to homebuyers.

Homebuilders are still recovering. Not only were commercial loans harder to get, but consumers weren’t buying homes while prices were falling in the decade following the housing recession. Subsequently, builders put their money toward multi-family apartment complexes or in luxury homes, leaving a serious shortage of affordable entry-level and workforce single-family homes.

During the pandemic, many workers worked from home and found they wanted a different lifestyle. They flocked from urban centers to suburbia and to small towns to find larger, more comfortable homes. Those who purchased homes at record low interest rates are finding three to four years later that their homes are worth much more money, but they’re reluctant to buy another home at today’s higher prices, coupled with interest rates that more than doubled since 2021.

From July 2021 to July 2022, there were 6.4% fewer homes listed on the market as homeowners declined to list their homes for sale. Coupled with builders pulling back on housing starts in 2023 by nearly 20%, homebuyers may face tighter inventories of homes for sale. Realtor.com anticipates that lack of inventory, plus higher mortgage rates and still-high home prices will cause the number of homes for sale to drop 5% and that housing sales will fall 15.8% to about 4.2 million homes sold this year. If that happens, it will be the lowest number of homes sold since 2012. 

Homebuyers’ Five Biggest Complaints

Homebuyers have one simple expectation – that when they go out with their agent to shop for a home that the seller is ready for them to buy. 

That means no sticking drawers in the kitchen. No leaning fences. No rust-stained plumbing fixtures. We could go on, but maybe we need to make it clear.  If you have even one of following “turn-offs,” your home won’t sell. 

Overpricing your home

Overpricing your home is like trying to crash the country club without a membership. The ones who belong know that you don’t and you’re going to get some negative feedback. The worst feedback, of course, is silence. That could include no showings and no offers. 

The problem with overpricing your home is that the buyers who are qualified to buy your home won’t see it because they’re shopping in a lower price range. The buyers who do will quickly realize that there are other homes in the same price range that offer more value.

Smells

Smells can come from a number of sources – pets, lack of cleanliness, stale air, water damage, cooking, and much more.  You may not even notice it, but there’s not a buyer in the world that will buy a home that smells unless they’re investors looking for a bargain. Even so, they’ll get a forensic inspection to find out the source of the smells. If they find anything like undisclosed water damage, or pet urine under the “new” carpet, then they will either severely discount their offer or walk away. 

Clutter

If your tables are full to the edges with photos, figurines, mail, and drinking glasses, buyers’ attention is going to be more focused on running the gauntlet of your living room without breaking any Hummel figurines than in considering your home for purchase. 

Clutter and too much furniture confuse the eye, making it really difficult for buyers to see the proportions of rooms and to try to imagine themselves living there. If they can’t see what they need to know, they move on to the next home.  

Deferred maintenance

Deferred maintenance is a polite euphemism for letting your home fall apart. Just like people age due to the effects of the sun, wind and gravity, so do structures like your home.  Things wear out, break and appear rickety. Especially with an older home, it’s your job as the homeowner to keep your home in good repair.  

Your buyers really want a home that’s been well-maintained. They don’t want to wonder what needs to fix or how much repairs will cost. 

Dated décor

The reason people are looking at your home instead of buying brand new is because of cost and location.  They want your neighborhood, but that doesn’t mean they want a time capsule of a home.  Just like they want a home in good repair, they want a home with updates that complement the home’s era and brings it into the modern era. 

Harvest gold and avocado green from the seventies; soft blues and mauves from the eighties, jewel tones from the nineties, and onyx and pewter from the oughts to be all colorways that can date your home.  Textures like popcorn ceilings, shag or berber carpet, and flocked wallpaper are also undesirable.  

When you’re behind the times, buyers don’t want to join you.  And your Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices network professional can’t get you the price and terms you want. He or she can work miracles, but only if you follow their advice and get your home up to speed – the speed of today’s market. 

Choosing the Home with the Right Square Footage

Homebuyers are feeling the sticker shock of higher prices, but it’s not just inflation. They want bigger homes. In 1949, the average size of a new single-family home was 909 square feet, while homes grew to 2,480 square feet by 2021. Homebuyers want more than they had before, including more space, energy-efficient appliances, and smart home technologies, all of which is making homes more expensive.

But how much living space does a family really need? According to the National Association of REALTORS®, a typical home purchased recently is 1,800 square feet with three bedrooms and two bathrooms and was built in 1986, but that may not be enough space for some homebuyers. While it’s totally subjective, a good rule of thumb is that each person should have 200 and 400 square feet of living space. So, a family of four would be comfortable with a home of about 2,400 square feet.

To help you choose the right-sized home, consider your family’s needs. Small children can comfortably share a bedroom, but teenagers need more privacy. Aging parents are safer in single-level homes or a downstairs owner’s suite, preferably with a separate entrance and living area. You may need more space if you’re working from home and need a home office, a playroom for kids, a bigger kitchen, or an owner’s suite with his and her baths.

Whatever you choose, make sure the layout and square footage also aligns with how much you want to maintain and pay for utilities. 

Will Your HOA Allow Your Home Business?

Homeowners’ associations (HOAs) are formed by the owners of units within a community to manage, maintain and improve quality of life for residents and increase their property values. And there are four things all HOAs hate—strangers, traffic, safety issues, and anything that might cause declines in property values, such as home-based businesses.

Out of 32.5 million small businesses, about 19 million are home-based or began at home, according to The U.S. Small Business Association. Following the pandemic, many workers found that they want to be their own bosses, but this is a growing issue for HOAs that prohibit homeowners from using their properties for commercial purposes.

While it’s fine to have a home office business such as accounting or search engine optimization, your HOA won’t allow you to use your home for obvious commercial use such as manufacturing, storing large equipment, or making or receiving frequent deliveries. HOAs don’t want people coming and going to your house, or for trucks and cars to crowd the streets and parking spaces. It makes your neighbors feel put upon, inconvenienced, unsafe, and less confident in the security of their community.

As an existing homeowner, you should have a copy of your HOA’s governing documents and by-laws, covenants, conditions, and restrictions—so you can see where your HOA stands on the issue. If you’re considering choosing a home in an HOA-managed community, make certain you review the association documents as a condition of your inspection.

Choose the Right Size for Your Next Home

Homebuyers are feeling the sticker shock of higher prices, but it’s not just inflation. They want bigger homes. In 1949, the average size of a new single-family home was 909 square feet, while homes grew to 2,480 square feet by 2021. Homebuyers want more than they had before, including more space, energy-efficient appliances, and smart home technologies, all of which is making homes more expensive.

But how much living space does a family really need? According to the National Association of REALTORS®, a typical home purchased recently is 1,800 square feet with three bedrooms and two bathrooms and was built in 1986, but that may not be enough space for some homebuyers. While it’s totally subjective, a good rule of thumb is that each person should have 200 and 400 square feet of living space. So, a family of four would be comfortable with a home of about 2,400 square feet.

To help you choose the right-sized home, consider your family’s needs. Small children can comfortably share a bedroom, but teenagers need more privacy. Aging parents are safer in single-level homes or a downstairs owner’s suite, preferably with a separate entrance and living area. You may need more space if you’re working from home and need a home office, a playroom for kids, a bigger kitchen, or an owner’s suite with his and her baths.

Whatever you choose, make sure the layout and square footage also aligns with how much you want to maintain and pay for utilities.

Second Quarter Stats… Lower sales volume with higher prices.

Second Quarter 2023 sales statistics (April- June) showed that the average sales price of Lansing area homes increased from $230,299 to $234,818 as compared to the second quarter of 2022. This 2% represents an average home value increase of $4,519 for homes sold during those three months. The fact that there were 535 fewer sales in 2023 (-16.5%) does not represent a decline in Lansing area sales activity.  (These figures include all sales throughout the Greater Lansing Association of Realtors.)

Second Quarter 2023 Sales Statistics

Sales prices have been increasing steadily while the annual number of sold units has been decreasing each year. The 16.5% reduction in total number of home sales thus far this year has been caused was by the low number of homes being offered for sale…not from any lack of enthusiasm on the part of buyer. Just about any properly priced home will receive multiple offers and be off the market within a few days. For sellers, there is a serious reluctance to give up a 3.5% mortgage in order to enter into a 7% mortgage on a different home. This, and unstable economic conditions is the main reason is the low number of homes to choose from.

Spring and Summer sales have been brisk and show no sign of slowing as we move into August. Traditionally, sale begin to slow as we approach Labor Day.

Lansing Area Market View – August 1, 2023
 550 – 
currently listed homes for sale in the five county greater Lansing area.
 258 – homes with accepted offers. (Awaiting inspections and/or appraisal.)
 340 – homes listed as Pending. (Have completed inspections and will soon close.)
 3168 – homes that have closed since January 1, 2023. 

Current Mortgage interest rates
  30-year fixed – 6.81% ($6.53 per $1000)
  15-year fixed – 6.11% ($8.50 per $1000)

Protect Your Plumbing

If you haven’t had to hire a plumber lately, you may not know how much it costs to have one come out and fix a problem that was preventable. First-time homebuyers and new homeowners will really benefit from knowing what to do to prevent household water troubles.

The first thing you need to learn is where your outside water shutoff valve is. That way, if you have an indoor leak from a broken water line or a drip that won’t turn off, you can prevent possible water damage before you call the plumber.

There are also items you should never flush down the toilet. Don’t feel fooled by products like baby wipes, feminine products, facial tissues and makeup removal sheets, and clumpable cat litter that are advertised as flushable. They contain plastic fibers that could clog plumbing, so stick to toilet paper that doesn’t clog pipes. Don’t pour anything down the sink that isn’t water soluble, and that includes oils and damaging chemicals. Older plumbing has narrower pipes, and/or you may not have enough water pressure to send some items along their way.

Waste disposals can pulverize a lot more foods than in the past, but you’re much safer avoiding feeding them anything fibrous such as banana peels, breads or fruits with seeds, starchy foods like potato skins, or foods with nuts. Run water as you put items in the disposal and give them enough time to grind thoroughly. Stuff a sliced lemon down the neck for freshness.

What’s Decreasing Your Home’s Value?

There’s nothing you can do about the location of your home, but that may be one of the reasons why your home’s value isn’t as high as you wish it were. What you can do is make sure other aspects of your property are desirable. When you’re selling your home, you want to meet as many homebuyer preferences as possible and keep them in mind as you search for your next home.

Noise – Traffic noise, basketball-bouncing teenagers, loud music, and construction are just a few things homebuyers don’t want to hear. Add more insulation in the walls, and replace single pane windows with sound-muffling double pane or storm windows.

Danger – A home built too close to a busy street, homes with scary guard dogs, and bars on the windows make homebuyers wary. Take your with you during showings.

High Maintenance Costs – You love your swimming pool and spa, but your homebuyer may not. Don’t make improvements that won’t resell well unless you really want them and they make sense for your home and area.

Luxury features in a starter home – If you’re selling a starter or mid-range home, luxury appliances and finishes are appealing, but homebuyers won’t pay extra for them.

Tacky neighbors – Yes, your neighbors can bring your home’s value down as well as up. Junk in the yard, peeling paint and obvious deferred maintenance can be off-putting to homebuyers. Get the other neighbors together and offer to help the homeowner, especially seniors on fixed incomes.

How Property Comparables Are Chosen

Whether you’re selling your home or buying a home, your Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices network professional will provide you with a comparative market analysis (CMA), a computer-generated report that shows you what homes similar to yours are selling for in your area, or how the home you’re interested in buying compares to other homes on the market.

CMAs are only available to members of the local multiple listing service, which include licensed real estate agents, brokers, appraisers, real estate attorneys, and local property tax authorities. It takes skill and experience to create a report that can help you choose a listing price range for your home or to help you make an offer on one of the homes you’re seeing. 

A CMA can be as narrow as a city block or as broad as a zip code. It can include data on homes for the latest week, month, or six-month period. It can show you homes for sale and those that have recently sold. CMAs can be made specific with search parameters that show only one-story homes, condos, or homes with swimming pools.

Occasionally, you’ll find that the CMA doesn’t have a nearby comparable. In that case, the search parameters must be widened, which may not give as true a picture of value, for the neighborhood.

You may be pleased or dismayed by what the CMA shows, but you should know that it’s an accurate depiction in real time of current market conditions—until a new comparable changes the results.

Is Home Flipping a Good Idea?

They make it look so easy on TV. Buy a house, fix it up, and resell it for a big profit. But that’s easier said than done. Here’s what you’ll really need to be a successful home flipper:

Cash – Most flippers pay cash for properties. You can get a loan, but you’ll need good credit to qualify for enough to cover the costs of both the purchase and resale transactions, renovations, utilities, homeowner’s insurance, and to cover unexpected expenses. You should have cash to cover your carrying costs throughout the timeline of the project and a tax plan to pay or defer capital gains.

Experience – Successful flippers follow a formula—an undervalued, distressed, or unimproved and dated property that can be purchased using the 70% rule. If you plan to sell the property for $500,000 after renovations, you should pay no more than $350,000 to acquire it, plus the costs to make repairs and updates, allowing you to make a typical profit of $67,000. If the property looks as though it will cost you too much to make it sellable at $500K and still make a profit, it’s not a good candidate for flipping.

Labor and Materials – Most flippers do the work themselves, but you may need skilled labor such as electricians and plumbers. Working without a license can expose you to fines and lawsuits for faulty construction. You must be savvy about the costs of materials needed, supply chains, and have the correct equipment and insurance to work safely.